Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 4.102312 4.542367 5.070020 5.770283 6.713046 8.008291 10.089682
2025-01-19 3.496097 4.001470 4.657581 5.627306 7.155291 9.834257 16.674564
2025-01-26 3.257573 3.823307 4.605469 5.875191 8.219517 13.861813 67.365445
2025-02-02 3.133853 3.759812 4.676087 6.308391 9.928836 24.862943 NaN
2025-02-09 2.959848 3.593754 4.551774 6.356254 10.899133 46.822689 NaN
2025-02-16 2.829014 3.470957 4.469116 6.449897 12.149170 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 2.650291 3.258027 4.208084 6.112626 11.747958 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 2.555728 3.163696 4.132633 6.148707 12.803605 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 2.464976 3.067021 4.040402 6.124455 13.668382 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 2.361088 2.942512 3.886855 5.927502 13.551434 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 2.321385 2.915333 3.901347 6.131015 16.010605 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 2.228709 2.798331 3.743365 5.877516 15.282696 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 2.129858 2.670427 3.563631 5.563542 14.081099 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 2.058820 2.584243 3.455196 5.418462 14.006906 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 2.038566 2.577762 3.490776 5.645647 17.203062 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 2.035499 2.598403 3.578444 6.042293 25.144071 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.996630 2.557599 3.544344 6.085952 29.848031 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.964249 2.525801 3.524988 6.171293 38.598034 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.899558 2.437171 3.387386 5.863328 31.531146 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.868471 2.403964 3.358363 5.896352 38.481270 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.834629 2.364656 3.314431 5.874157 44.892379 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.789500 2.304699 3.225738 5.693591 40.469580 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.777102 2.299618 3.247266 5.880161 76.637954 NaN NaN